Quiz 1
Query 1.
1.
Contemplate the next payoff desk that
represents the earnings earned for every various (A, B, and C) beneath
the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.
S1 S2 S3
A $60 $145 $120
B $75 $125 $110
C $95 $85 $130
Utilizing the Laplace criterion, what can be the best anticipated payoff?
(Factors : three)
$103.three
$108.three
$120
$125
$145
Query 2.
2.
A bakery should resolve what number of pies to arrange for the
upcoming weekend. The bakery has the choice to make 50, 100, or 150
pies. Assume that demand for the pies could be 50, 100, or 150. Every pie
prices $5 to make and sells for $7. Unsold pies are donated to a close-by
charity heart. Assume that there is no such thing as a alternative value for misplaced gross sales.
Utilizing the knowledge above, which various ought to be chosen based mostly on the maximax criterion?
(Factors : three)
Make 50 pies
Make 100 pies
Make 150 pies
Query three.
three.
Contemplate the next payoff desk that
represents the earnings earned for every various (A, B, and C) beneath
the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.
S1 S2 S3
A $60 $145 $120
B $75 $125 $110
C $95 $85 $130
What’s the anticipated worth of good data (EVPI)? Assume P(S1) = zero.5 and P(S2) = zero.25.
(Factors : three)
$zero
$11.25
$15
$20
$35
Query four.
four.
A bakery should resolve what number of pies to arrange for the
upcoming weekend. The bakery has the choice to make 50, 100, or 150
pies. Assume that demand for the pies could be 50, 100, or 150. Every pie
prices $5 to make and sells for $7. Unsold pies are donated to a close-by
charity heart. Assume that there is no such thing as a alternative value for misplaced gross sales.
Check with the knowledge above. Assume that the bakery has obtained the
following chance data relating to demand for the pies: P(50) =
zero.three, P(100) = zero.5, and P(150) = zero.2.
What’s the anticipated worth beneath good data (EVPI)?
(Factors : three)
zero
90
190
280
Query 5.
5.
A plant supervisor is contemplating shopping for extra stamping
machines to accommodate rising demand. The alternate options are to purchase 1
machine, 2 machines, or three machines. The earnings realized beneath every
various are a perform of whether or not their bid for a current protection
contract is accepted or not. The payoff desk under illustrates the
earnings realized (in $000’s) based mostly on the completely different situations confronted by
the supervisor.
Different Bid Accepted Bid Rejected
Purchase 1 machine $10 $5
Purchase 2 machines $30 $four
Purchase three machines $40 $2
Check with the knowledge above. Assume that based mostly on historic bids
with the protection contractor, the plant supervisor believes that there’s a
65% probability that the bid shall be accepted and a 35% probability that the bid
shall be rejected.
Which various ought to be chosen utilizing the anticipated financial worth (EMV) criterion?
(Factors : three)
Purchase 1 machine
Purchase 2 machines
Purchase three machines
Query 6.
6.
ABC Inc. should decide on its present
capability for subsequent yr. Estimated earnings (in $000s) based mostly on subsequent
yr’s demand are proven within the desk under.
Subsequent Yr’s Demand
Different Low Excessive
Develop $100 $200
Subcontract $50 $120
Do nothing $40 $50
Utilizing the knowledge above, which various ought to be chosen based mostly on the maximin criterion?
(Factors : three)
Develop
Subcontract
Do nothing
Query 7.
7.
Contemplate the next payoff desk that
represents the earnings earned for every various (A, B, and C) beneath
the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.
S1 S2 S3
A $60 $145 $120
B $75 $125 $110
C $95 $85 $130
Utilizing the maximin criterion, what can be the best anticipated payoff?
(Factors : three)
$145
$125
$85
$75
$60
Query eight.
eight.
The anticipated financial worth (EMV) method lets you incorporate your individual perspective towards danger.
(Factors : three)
True
False
Query 9.
9.
A bakery should resolve what number of pies to arrange for the
upcoming weekend. The bakery has the choice to make 50, 100, or 150
pies. Assume that demand for the pies could be 50, 100, or 150. Every pie
prices $5 to make and sells for $7. Unsold pies are donated to a close-by
charity heart. Assume that there is no such thing as a alternative value for misplaced gross sales.
Utilizing the knowledge above, which various ought to be chosen based mostly on the minimax remorse criterion?
(Factors : three)
Make 50 pies
Make 100 pies
Make 150 pies
Query 10.
10.
The EMV that an individual is prepared to surrender in
order to keep away from the danger related to a big gamble is known as the
__________.
(Factors : three)
danger premium
certainty equal
EVPI
EVwPI
EVSI
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